The week brought further information which could aid the ailing Dollar, such as the increase of the ADP Nonfarm Employment by 10 thousand against an expected decrease by 60 thousand, the increase of the American GDP in the first quarter by 0.6% and the better than expected readings of the US Consumer Confidence together with the ISM Manufacturing Index. Most importantly it has to be mentioned that the Nonfarm Payrolls decreased by 20 thousand against an expected decrease by 80,000 causing the EURUSD to rally to the level of 1.53. What should also be mentioned that the Fed decreased increase rates, as expected on Wednesday, by 25 basis points, signaling also that inflation was a problem that should be dealt with. This may be a signal that the Feds policy may be changing and soon we may be witnessing an end to further decreases on interest rates, also signaling that the crisis on the American market may be coming to an end.
The Polish Monetary Policy on the other hand kept rates unchanged at the level of 5.75%. The Zloty was affected by events on the EURUSD market and continued its corrective movements against both the Dollar and the Euro. Currently I believe that the corrective movement should continue on both markets. The first significant level of resistance on the EUPLN market should be around the level of 3.47 where the current correction will equal the previous one, whilst the USDPLN markets target will be 2.28.
Przemysław Kwiecień  |
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