Even though the Dollar weakened initially after the publication, currently it is growing in strength against both the Euro and the Zloty. What is interesting is the fact that changes on both the Dollar and world stock markets are not the influence of macroeconomic data, but of the fact that Ben Bernake did not give any hope of further reductions of interest rates even if the grim situation on the U.S economy continues. All further macroeconomic data will be, to some extent, an answer to whether the reduction in rates is the answer to cure the plummeting US economy or whether another solution should be sought.

On the other hand it has to mentioned that, even if macroeconomic data from the US is better than expected than not much will currently change. Time is needed for the situation in the US to change and currently everything is pointing to the fact that the EURUSD market will continue to rise, though a corrective movement is obviously very probable. Today’s payrolls should be observed as markets tend to move dynamically at the time of the publication. If results are better than expected, than the corrective movement on the EURUSD should continue. All in all I believe that after the correction the market should return to the increase run and head towards the level of 1.465 or even higher. The USDPLN should be influenced by this movement and also following a correction should continue it decrease trend.

Omar Arnaout