Sure, there are macroeconomic reports that analysts and investors should pay attention to during the first couple of days of the week. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, will deliver a speech titled "Reducing Preventable Mortgage Foreclosures" at the Independent Community Bankers of America/Techworld Annual Convention, in Orlando. We expect Bernanke to confirm the 50 basis points interest rate cut planned for the 18^th of March, when the FOMC meets. Those betting on the Canadian dollar will pay attention to the Canadian Bank and its interest rate statement. The market expect a 25 basis points cut to 3.75%.

Wednesday is not going to be calmer. We will start the day with the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report from the U.S where only 10K new jobs are expected (against the previous reading of +126K). Following this report, the U.S will publish a series of economic activity reports including factory orders, unit labor costs, and nonfarm productivity. The one investors are waiting on Wednesday is the ISM Non-manufacturing publication. The previous report (reading much worse than expected) brought markets down. How is it going to be this time? The market expects a reading slightly better than previously. Also, the Beige Book will be published describing the current state of the American economy. Those investors playing on world currencies, should focus on the Australian Trade Balance (AUD) and New Zealand’s central bank interest rate statement (NZD – no change from the current 8.25%).

Thursday is the central bank’s day. Both, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are expected to keep interest rates at 4.00% and 5.25% respectively. Europe seems not to follow the Fed in their interest rate cuts quest. As usual, ECB’s president, Jean-Claude Trichet, will hold a press conference following the bank’s decision. More important than the decision itself will be what Trichet has to say regarding future monetary policy of the ECB. At night, the Bank of Japan’s decision is also expected (no change from 0.5%).

This is how we arrive to Friday. All anxious waiting for the labor market report from the U.S. The markets forecasts an unemployment rate increase from 5.8% to 5.9% but on the spotlight, as usual, will be nonfarm payrolls publication. According to analysts, 25K new jobs were added. That is certainly an improvement from the 17K drop last month.

Certainly, it is an interesting week ahead of us. A week for investors with strong nerves.

Omar Arnaout