08.05.2009 - Currency Weekly Brief

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Date: 2009-05-08 15:44

The previous week was yet another increase week on the EURUSD market. What is interesting though, is that the increase coincided with better than expected macroeconomic data from the US market, which would usually result in the strengthening of the US Dollar.


This data included pending home sales which increased by 3.2% against an expected increase by a mere 0.1%, and also data from the labor market, where the ADP non farm employment change noted a decrease by 491 thousand against an expected plunge by 644 thousand and the mostly anticipated data, the non farm payrolls which noted a decrease by 539 thousand against an expected decrease by 590 thousand. Will the increase movement continue in the upcoming weeks? This is difficult to determine in such volatile times, but certainly the breaking of the level of 1.3736 would be a strong pro increase signal. If the mentioned level is broken then the minimum target will be reaching the level of 1.41.

As to the Polish Zloty, then it continued its increase movement against both the US Dollar and the Euro. The reason for this has been the same for the last couple of weeks, as global stock markets have continued their increase run. This will probably continue at least to the moment where the S&P 500 index reaches its January high. If this level is also broken then the Zloty can expect to strengthen in the near future. What should be mentioned is that the nearest support levels for the USDPLN and EURPLN market stand consecutively at 3.18 and 4.22.


Omar Arnaout