09.03.2009 - The week ahead – less data, similar concerns

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Date: 2009-03-09 11:51

In comparison to the first week of March, the next few days look calm. Among  crucial data for the market one can list only the US retail sales for February on Thursday (expected to drop by 0,5% MoM, after somewhat surprising rise in January) and perhaps the US trade balance for January released on Friday.

On top of that we have industrial orders and output in Germany (Wednesday and Thursday respectively) and sentiment UM index in the US (Friday). Less data doesn’t mean less concerns for investors. The nationalization of Lloyds over the weekend in the UK only sealed concerns over the state of major global financial institutions and these factors seem to continue to push stock market indices down. This environment is going to dominate over the next week with a decisive influence on other markets, even if currency and commodities markets look a bit more resilient. The EURUSD has so far refused to test new lows along with the S&P500 but a gloomy sentiment prevents a major rebound. There is, however, a talk of some recovery on the oil market with OPEC expected to cut supplies further on their meeting scheduled for March 15th.

Przemysław Kwiecień
Chief Economist