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12.11.2007 - Stock and Currency Markets Weekly Outlook

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Date: 2007-11-12 13:01

Last week brought us the decision of central banks regarding interest rates. This week we will get to know the level of inflation in the major economies  in the world.


Monday will be rich in data flowing from Japan. The second-biggest economy in the world has been slowing down recently so investors will be awaiting very carefully for the GDP (Expected: 0.5% Q/Q) report as well as the Deflator reading. Throughout the day, the Bank of Japan is expected to announce the new level of interest rates. Analysts expect no change from the current 0.5%. Tuesday is for players betting on the British pound. Both, CPI and Core CPI, are expected to be higher than previously. Will this be an impulse for the Bank of England to raise interest rates? On their last meeting the previous week, interest rates were remained unchanged at 5.75%.

Wednesday will be more interesting since Bernanke (Fed) and Trichet (ECB) are expected to speak. Also, the Bank of England will publish its Inflation Report. The United States will be on the spotlight again with the Core Retail Sales (Expected: 0.3%; Prior: 0.4%)  and PPI (Expected: 0.3%; Prior: 1.1%) inflation reports being published.

On Thursday investors also need to pay attention to macro publications. The most important should be the Core CPI inflation report from the US. Crude oil inventories report as usual can affect petroleum prices. Inventories of oil are expected to decline again, this time by 0.8 million barrels.

Friday, when investors will be getting ready for the weekend, the US Industrial Production and TIC Net Long-Term Transactions reports will be published.

Investors In Poland as usual will follow news from abroad. This week though will bring reports from the Polish economy worth attention. On Tuesday the Current Account will be announced. The deficit is expected to increase to -821 million euros. On Wednesday, the CPI report for October will be published. The reading is expected to confirm increasing inflationary pressures with CPI expected to jump to 2.9% on a yearly basis from the previous 2.3%. Friday will bring us the Average Earnings publication (Expected: 9.7%; Prior: 9.5%) and Average Employment increase (Prior: 4.7%).


Adam Narczewski