12.12.2008 - Weekly Currency Report: Deeper crisis?

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Date: 2008-12-12 23:51

This past week lacked important macroeconomic reports so investors focused mostly on news flowing from the United States. The U.S government decided to help the three troubled automakers: Ford, Chrysler and General Motors with $14 billion dollars.


The aid is very needed since those companies probably will not be able to survive another quarter. The plan collapsed on Thursday night when the American Senate voted against the idea. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada suggested the $14 billion wouldn't be revisited until January. Those were not good news for the U.S dollar, which was losing value since the beginning of the week when it was quoted at $1.2850 against the Euro. The possibility of bankruptcies of three major automakers caused investors to sell the dollar which reached $1.3385 on Friday.

Compared to the last couple of weeks, the Polish Złoty remained stable. The big news was JP Morgan’s forecast of the EUR/PLN at the end of 2009: zł.2.81. Investors were confused when the bank apologized for their “mistake” since the zł.2.81 was not for the EUR/PLN but for the USD/PLN! It makes another event on the Polish market (“magical fixing” on the WSE, options trades) where JP Morgan takes part. Good news for Polish customers was the decision of the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 0,5%. Credit holders will be paying less for their mortgage payments denominated in the Swiss franc. During the course of the week, the EUR/PLN advanced from zł.3.8670 to zł.3.9345, the USD/PLN dropped from zł.3.0185 to zł.2.9360.  


Adam Narczewski