This weeks macroeconomic data did once more outline the US crisis with retails sales decreasing m/m by 0.6% against an expected increase by 0.2% and consumer confidence falling to a 16 year low, to the level of 70.5. It has to be mentioned that negative macroeconomic data together with the loss of 85,000 jobs this year is a major signal to recession. The federal reserve will probably decrease interest rates by 75 basis points to the level of 2.25% during the next week, trying once more to help the ailing US economy. I believe that this may have a future effect on the US currency, but during the next week investors can still expect new record peaks to be reached, with the current target being 1.5734.

As to the Polish Zloty, then it has to be mentioned that the Zloty followed the movements of the EURUSD market, and will probably strengthen during the next week against both the Dollar and the Euro. The target for the USDPLN market is currently 2.2330, whilst the current target for the EURPLN market stands at 3.4774.

Omar Arnaout