15.05.2009 - Weekly Currency Brief: Stabilization of the Złoty?

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Date: 2009-05-15 15:19

This past week turned out to be calm on currency markets despite the vast amount of macroeconomic publications being published. After weeks of constant growth, stock markets worldwide got a breather and fell when investors realized their gains.


At the same time optimism about the quick recovery of global markets was declined mainly after Wednesday’s publications. Industrial production in the Euro zone declined by over 2% on a monthly basis (20% on a yearly basis), which was more than expected. Retail sales in the U.S also declined (analysts expected a small increase) confirming that consumption in America will not drive the economy’s recovery in the near future. All these had its effect on the EUR/USD, which declined by 70 basis points to $1.3530.

The situation on the equities markets and the eurodollar caused the Polish currency to depreciate. The EUR/PLN increased from zł.4.33 to zł.4.46 while the USD/PLN from zł.3.18 to zł.3.28. It can honestly be said the the Złoty market was stable. The swings the Złoty has experienced throughout the course of the week, used happen throughout one day. The Polish currency remains under pressure from global sentiment towards riskier investments. Whenever risk aversion declines, the Złoty will be appearing as a more attractive investment. As for today, there is still the fear of the unknown and only better news from the U.S and Euro zone’s economy might stabilize the situation on all financial markets.


Adam Narczewski