There was no clear macroeconomic data influencing this occurrence and this stop could be explained by the fact that the current correction reached the level of equality with the previous correction in the trend, which in many situations acts as a significant support level where markets bounce back. In my opinion if the EURUSD breaks the level of 1.4723 then the market movement could reach the level of 1.49 at the end of the week. If so, the Zloty could strengthen significantly against both the US Dollar and the Euro.

Even though macroeconomic data did not affect market movements, it did give investors an insight to what monetary policy councils in the US and Poland could be planning in the near future.

The CPI in Poland increased by 3% y/y against an expected increase by 2.9% y/y, which is yet another signal to the fact that the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), could increase interest rates by another 25 basis points in November. On the other hand the CPI in the US increased, as analysts expected, by 0.3% m/m, which is a signal that there is a minor chance that the Fed will not decrease rates in December, though it has to be mentioned that this is highly unlikely.

Omar Arnaout