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19.11.2007 - Stock and Currency Markets Weekly Outlook

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Date: 2007-11-19 15:53

The upcoming week will bring us just a couple of interesting macroeconomic publications. Investors will focus on Tuesday’s FOMC minutes from their last meeting.


Markets seem to be stabilizing after last week’s movements. This week will be very sleepy especially with the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US on Thursday and the shorter trading session on Friday. Most attention will be focused on Tuesday’s report of the FOMC. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee's interest rate meeting held about two weeks earlier. The minutes provide detailed insights regarding the FOMC's stance on monetary policy, so traders carefully comb them for clues regarding future interest rate shifts. Also on Tuesday, news from the US housing market will be published. Both, the Housing Starts and Building Permits reports, are expected to be lower than the previous month but those declines seem to be slowing down. For investors playing on the CAD, Tuesday will also bring Canadian CPI readings (expected lower than previously).

On Wednesday worth attention are Canadian Core Retail Sales and the Final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. As usual, investors will be closely watching the level of crude oil inventories since recently they strongly affect oil prices.

On Thursday, Thanksgiving Holiday in the US begins so the activity of investors will decline. On Friday nothing exciting should happen. European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet will speak at a panel discussion on “Global Capital – Surrender of National Politics?” at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress, in Frankfurt.

Finally we will Get some macro news from the Polish economy. On Tuesday the PPI report will be published (Expected: 2.3%, Prior: 2.0%) along with the Industrial Production (Expected: 9.0%; Prior: 5.2%). Thursday will get attention of investors since the minutes of the Polish Monetary Policy Council meetin will be published. The importance of this report Carnot be forgotten Since most analysts exp3ect an interest hike at the end of November. The minutes are the last meeting of the MPC are expected to confirm those forecasts. On Friday, another important publication should confirm inflationary pressures – net inflation is expected to increase from the previous reading.


Adam Narczewski