22.05.2009 - Currency Weekly Brief

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Date: 2009-05-22 23:31

The previous week brought a significant increase on the EURUSD market, which broke the March high on the level of 1.3736, signaling that investors can expect the market to note higher peaks in the upcoming weeks.


The current target for the EURUSD is 1.40, though with greater market strength the target may be shifted to 1.42. The increase on the market is a result of worse than expected market data from the US economy, as building permits increased by 0.49 million against an expected increase by 0.53 million and housing starts which increased by 0.46 million against an expected increase by 0.52 million. This signifies that the crisis on the ever ailing real estate market has not come to an end and that buildings built during the times prior to the crisis have still not been sold. What has to be added is that the better than expected reading of the German ZEW economic sentiment index, was also an impulse which helped the EURUSD market rocket to new peaks.

As to the Polish Zloty, then it grew in strength against both the US Dollar and the Euro, falling consecutively to the levels of 3.12 and 4.31. The reason for this can be sought in the increase on the EURUSD market, but also in the continuing increase movement on global stock markets. If in the upcoming week stock markets continue their upward rally then the aversion to risk will continue to plummet, thus giving the Polish currency an impulse to continue its strengthening movement.


Omar Arnaout