26.05.2008 - Economic Weekly Outlook

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Date: 2008-05-26 11:34

Monday should be very calm on financial markets. Investors are celebrating the Spring Bank Holiday in the UK and the Memorial Day in the U.S. Stock markets in those countries are closed for the day. The real trading will start on Tuesday and on that day investors will focus on the New Home Sales report from the U.S. Analysts expect a better reading, same as for the Existing Home Sales the previous Friday. Worth attention is also the consumer sentiment index compiled by the Conference Board.


On Wednesday we will learn what Bank of Japan’s governor Shirakawa has to say about Japan’s future monetary policy. He is due to speak at the 2008 International Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo. More news info about the American industry we will get with the durable and core durable goods report.

Interesting things will happen on Thursday. Ben Bernanke, Fed’s Chairman, is due to deliver a speech entitled "Liquidity Provision by the Federal Reserve" at the Risk Transfer Mechanisms and Financial Stability Workshop in Basel. We will also learn about Euro zone’s consumer sentiment. The most important publication of the day will be the second release of the American GDP (forecast: 0.9%; previously: 0.6%). On Friday no big swings are expected. The most anticipated publications include: Japanese Industrial Production and CPI, Canadian GDP, Euro zone’s unemployment rate and American Core PCE Index.

The upcoming week will be the second in a row when Polish investors are “flooded” with macroeconomic reports from the local economy. Retail Sales are expected to drop to 13.6% in April from 15.7% in March. Still, the retail sales level is pretty high, showing that consumers are still spending money. The good news might be the drop in unemployment. According to analysts, it is forecasted to decrease from 11.1% to 10.6%. Both reports will be published on Wednesday. The most anticipated report will be published on Friday. Polish GDP is expected to decline to 5.8% from 6.1% in the first quarter. Such news would confirm that the national economy is slowing down. Such news and a strong Złoty might be the cure for high inflation in Poland.


Adam Narczewski