The most important reports for investors will be published as usual in the United States. Most attention will be on the Existing Home Sales (forecast: 5mln; prior: 50.04mln) publication on Wednesday and the New Home Sales (forecast: 750K; prior: 770K). Total home sales should be around 5.75 million, the lowest level in 8 years. When will this end? – investors around the world are asking. Worth attention will be Consumer Confidence report published by the Conference Board (forecast: 91 point; prior: 95.6 points) and the second revision of the American GDP (expected to be higher due to increased inventories. Naturally, important will be publication showing the Core Durable Goods as well as Friday’s Chicago PMI. Wednesday will also bring the crude oil inventories (might affect oil prices) and the Beige Book.

Fewer macro news will flow from the Euro zone. Investors will certainly wait for the Ifo Institute publication, showing business conditions in Germany (largest European economy).

In Poland, much attention is brought to the Polish Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting on Wednesday. Most analysts expect the Polish MPC will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% from the current 4.75%. Such decision will be the effect of the recent macroeconomic publication showing that inflationary pressures in Poland are increasing. Wages are increasing faster than work efficiency. Also, retail sales are higher than forecasts. Those are signs prove that inflation might be a danger to the Polish economy in the near future. An interest rate hike seems the one and only logical way to keep inflation within the set limits (2.5% +/- 1.0%).

Adam Narczewski