It is difficult to determine whether this surge was the influence of macroeconomic data or whether this leap was just a matter of time. Obviously negative data was produced from the US economy and included the lower than expected readings of new home sales, consumer confidence, core durable good orders and the Chicago PMI index. Fed Chairman Ben Bernake, also spoke during the week outlining that keeping employment up is currently a priority in order to liven up the economy, obviously also stating that the rise of inflation was still a concern. Tuesdays PPI  reading on the level of 1% against an expected increase by 0.4% could be a signal that the Fed will not decrease rates shortly. I currently believe that in the near future investors could expect the continuation of the increase trend on the EURUSD market, with the road wide open to the levels of 1.5439 and 1.5575. I also believe that the support on the level of 1.47 should not be broken.

As to the Polish market, then it has to be mentioned that the Monetary Policy Council increased rates once more to the level of 5.5 % and that we could be expecting a further increase shortly, with increasing retail sales and inflation.  It has to be also mentioned that the Polish currency followed the footsteps of the EURUSD market and also produced record levels with the USDPLN market falling to 2.3005 and the EURPLN market falling to 3.5060. The USDPLN market is currently aiming at the level of 2.2920, whilst the further fall of the EURPLN market should continued to the level of 3.4774 or even 3.4574.

Omar Arnaout