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29.05.2009 Weekly Currency Brief

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Date: 2009-05-29 23:30

The previous week  was very interesting from the technical point of view. At the beginning we could observe the strengthening of the US currency which brought the EUR/USD to the support level of  1,3790.  This was a good moment for buyers and the market started to recover very quickly with the uptrend coming back dynamically.


This situation was supported by market data. Very important data from Germany was published on Monday – IFO index - and was better than last month’s reading but worse than expected. On Tuesday US consumer confidence was published and was much better than expected (Actual 54.9, Forecast: 42). Better economic confidence in Europe together with the lower level of initial jobless claims from the US caused change to investor sentiment and from this moment the Euro started its recovery movement.

As to the Polish Zloty, then we could see different sentiment on USDPLN and EURPLN markets.  The Polish Zloty is weakened against the Euro and broke the significant resistance level of 4,44, which will now act as support. The situation on USDPLN market is different and we can still see a decrease channel with very strong resistance at 3.3110. During the week the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged at the level of 3.75%, which was expected by the market and was ignored by investors.



Anna Lachowiecka