30.04.2009 - Weekly Currency Brief

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Date: 2009-04-30 23:30

This was a week of mixed data from the US economy. On one hand better than expected data was generated from the Richmond Manufacturing Index,  Consumer Confidence and unemployment claims. On the other hand it has to be mentioned that the US GDP has been plummeting for the third straight quarter, which has not happened in 35 years, with personal spending and personal income also noting a slight plunge.


Even though investors encountered worse than expected readings during the week, the EURUSD market only noted a slight decrease signaling that investor sentiment is growing and that the word “Crisis” is straying away from being a significant fear factor. Growing investor sentiment can be primarily be observed on global stock markets which are continuing their increase movement. Obviously it is difficult to determine whether we are nearing the end of the crisis, but surely risk aversion is significantly decreasing.

The decrease of risk aversion could be seen during the week on both the USDPLN and the EURPLN markets, which both noted a decrease. What should be kept in mind though, is that both markets are within the boarders of significant geometric support levels and before the level of 3.1826 on the USDPLN market and the level of 4.2235 on the EURPLN are broken the further strengthening of the Polish currency can come to a halt. If the market does decide to break the mentioned support levels then the target will be reaching the level of 2.96 on the USDPLN market and 4.06 on the EURPLN market.


Omar Arnaout