These start from today’s Chicago PMI and go through tomorrow’s industrial ISM to Thursday’s ISM services. Expectations are not sky-high, in all cases investors do expect readings below 50 mark, which indicates contraction (the consensus for the industrial ISM is 48 pts. and ISM services 49). Similar indices will be released in the Euro zone and the UK, however their influence is likely to be limited as markets will await Friday’s payrolls in the US. According to the market consensus we are likely to see another drop of employment, this time by 50k (after –63k in February). The US data for March will show if – after fairly weak two months - there are any hints of growth in the first quarter. If not, one can expect the worst on April 30^th, when the advance GDP for the 1^st quarter 2008 is about to be released.

The macroeconomic reports are likely to provide some impulses to both – the forex and the stock markets, which have been in a phase of consolidation. Another contrast between the European and the US data (in favor for the Europe – which we have witnessed recently), may encourage another test of historical levels on the EURUSD (so far 1,5899 recorded on March 17^th). 

Przemysław Kwiecień Chief Economist