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Convergence programme allegedly sees 2010 GDP growth at 2.7% or 3.0%

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Date: 2010-02-08 09:50

The base scenario of the current update to the EU's convergence programme stipulates for GDP growth of 3.0% in 2010, 4.5% in 2011 and 4.2% in 2012, a high-ranking government source has told the Polish Press Agency (PAP), thus confirming earlier unofficial information.


In this scenario, the general government deficit would ease to 6.9% of GDP in 2010 (from last year's 7.2%) and further to 5.9% in 2011 while falling to below the EU's 3% limit - reaching 2.9% in 2012, PAP added.

However, the document - to be passed today by individual ministries - also includes a pessimistic scenario, under which the Polish economy would grow by 2.7% in 2010, by 3.7% in 2011 and by 3.5% in 2012 which would mean that the general government gap would be slashed to below 3% of GDP only in 2013, the source said.

PM Donald Tusk recently said that the convergence programme's update would be approved by Tuesday (Feb 9) at the latest.

He admitted earlier this month that t he convergence programme would stipulate for bringing the country's general government deficit to 3.0% of GDP in 2012 or in 2013, if the economic growth proves lower than currently forecasted.

The 2010 central budget law stipulates for GDP growth of 1.2% this year (vs. last year's 1.7) but the government's representatives repeatedly admitted that it would be much higher - deputy PM and economy minister Waldemar Pawlak even said that it could exceed 3.0%.

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