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European Comission seen to lower Polish GDP’s growth forecast

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Date: 2009-05-04 09:01

European Comission in its new outlook expects that Polish economy will shrink by 1.7% y/y during this year, daily Gazeta Wyborcza reports on weekend, quoting ‘reliable source’.


In its forecast published in January EC expected Polish economy to grow by 2.0% on annual basis.

Polish economist quoted by daily believes that such downgrade is much too pessimistic. Ryszard Petru from Warsaw School of Economics pointed that latest data did not suggest such a slowdown. Twelve Poland-based bank economists surveyed last week by the daily Rzeczpospolita expect the country's economy to expand by 0.3% y/y on the average this year, with their forecasts ranging from -1.8% (BNP Paribas) to 1.5% (Societe Generale). Recently, Fitch Ratings said it expected Poland 's GDP growth to amount to 0.0% in 2009 compared to the entire Emerging Europe region's decline of 3.1%. Standard & Poor's expects a GDP decline on 1.0% in Poland this year, with Moody's also betting on a recession. In late March, the World Bank lowered its forecast of Poland 's 2009 GDP growth to 0.5% from 2.0% expected in late February.

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